الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

استقرار الـ EUR/USD قرابة المنطقة 1.2900

استأنف الزوج EUR/USD اضطراب التداول عليه قرابة المنطقة 1.2900 اليوم الاثنين مع ازدياد شهية المخاطرة تدريجياً وسط المشاركين بالسوق على الرغم من أن مجيء مؤشر ثقة المستهلك Sentix الصادر عن منطقة اليورو بقراءة مثبطة.

وفي ضوء الأحداث الأخيرة بشأن استقالة رئيس الوزراء الايطالي ماريو مونتي، يقول لي هاردمان المحلل الفني ببنك طوكيو ميتسوبيشي يو اف جاي، " من المتوقع أن تتسبب الفترة الزاخرة بالغموض السياسي المتزايد في وضع ضغوطا تصاعدية على العائدات وجميع شروط سياسة التشدد النقدي بشكل مجمل ليلقي هذا كله بثقله على النمو الاقتصادي في إيطاليا. غير أن بدء الانتخابات قبل الموعد المتوقع لها من المستبعد أن يمثل عائقاً حقيقياً بالنسبة للإصلاح الاقتصادي والمهام المرتبطة بتحقيق الاستقرار المالي التي تتجه إليها الدولة لاستعادة ثقة المستثمرين في البلاد مع الموافقة المترقبة على موازنة عام 2013 عما قريب.

هذا ويتقدم الزوج EUR/USD بنحو %0.15 فوق سعره الافتتاحي ليتم التداول عليه في الوقت الحالي عند 1.2935(بارتداد فيبوناتشي نسبته %23.6 للموجة الهابطة 1.3127-1.2876) ومن ثم 1.2972 (ارتداد فيبوناتشي نسبته %38.2 للموجة الهابطة 1.3127-1.2876) وأخيراً 1.2974 (ذروة ارتفاع في 7 ديسمبر).
وعن سيناريو الهبوط، في حالة كسر الزوج 1.2880 (أدنى مستوياته في 10 ديسمبر) فقد يفتح أمامه المجال لاختبار الدعم التالي عند 1.2876 (أدنى نقطة للزوج في 7 ديسمبر) وأخيراً 1.2839 (ارتداد فيبوناتشي نسبته %61.8 للموجة الصاعدة 1.2661-1.3127).

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

بنك Dukascopy Bank

Industrial Metals: Copper climbs despite weak EU data

Precious Metals: Silver gains on hopes Fed will stick to loose policy
Precious metals rallied on Friday, boosted by mounting speculation that the Fed will stick to its monetary policy despite recent better-than-expected economic data from the US. At the same time, greenback managed to appreciate against its major counterparts, weighting on the commodity group.

Gold climbed as market participants bet the Fed would continue its loosening monetary policy as the US economy has not strengthened enough yet. However, the yellow metal traded in a narrow range amid solid greenback and mixed US numbers.

Silver followed gold’s trend, adding 0.13%. Hopes that the US monetary policy will remain ultra-loose pushed up the grey metal. At the same time, mixed global equities coupled with firm US Dollar capped gains of the metal.

Platinum and Palladium were the top-performers amid expected supply shortage on the market next year and hopes for continuation of easing in the US.



Industrial Metals: Copper climbs despite weak EU data
Industrial metals moved higher on Friday as market sentiment improved amid hopes the Fed will continue its growth-boosting measures. However, the upside remained limited after the ECB sharply cut its outlook on the region’s economy on Thursday. Meanwhile, dismal industrial production figures in Europe added pressure on **** metals.

Aluminum inched up despite signs of weakening demand in China. The country’s aluminum consumption climbed only 5.8% in the first nine months, down 5% from the same period in 2011.

Copper was the top-gainer, jumping 0.44% on hopes that the Fed will stick to its easy policies.

Nickel rose after a sharp fall on Thursday, tracking an increase in cancelled warrants ratio at LME. At the same time, a surplus on physical markets continued to pressurize the metal’s prices.

Zinc edged up, balancing between better spot market activity and oversupply on the physical markets.



Energy: Brent oil flat amid solid greenback, weak European numbers
Energy futures traded lower on Friday, weighted down by disappointing US preliminary consumer confidence reading for November and strong US Dollar. Adding to the negative mood of the commodity group, industrial production in the UK and Germany was weaker-than-expected last month. However, speculation that the Fed will stick to its ultra-easy policies limited losses of the commodity group.

Crude oil retreated on discouraging news from Europe and solid greenback. Moreover, mixed US data added pressure on the commodity. Brent oil was steady as supply threats in the Middle East offset losses caused by weak numbers from Europe.

Natural gas tumbled after updated weather forecasts showed above-normal temperatures across the major parts of the US in the next two-weeks. Warmer temperatures weighted on potential demand for heating fuel in the country.

Heating oil dipped as warmer-than-expected winter weather in the US is expected to reduce demand for heating fuel.



Agriculture: Corn slid further on soft demand for US supplies
Farm commodities apart from coffee were bearish on Friday amid soft demand for US exports and firm greenback. Meanwhile, traders anticipated US crop progress report due on Monday and World Demand and Supply Report due on Tuesday.

Wheat dropped on falling US exports due to availability of cheaper supplies from Ukraine and Russia. Solid greenback and corn weakness also pushed wheat futures lower.

Corn was the top-loser amid sluggish demand for US grains. Corn prices were declining for the second day in a row after the USDA reported a 78% fall in US corn exports in the week ended November 29 from a week earlier.

Sugar prolonged its slump on expectations for a record surplus this year due to rising production in Brazil and India.

Coffee was the only gainer, being supported by the record extend of short positions on the market that raised a risk of short-covering.

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

تحليلات بنك MIG
لجميع الازواج

EUR/USD



Testing support at 1.2875.

EUR/USD has weakened after failing to break the resistance at 1.3140 (17/10/2012 high). Monitor the test of the key support at 1.2875. An hourly resistance is at 1.2973 (07/12/2012 high). Another support can be found at 1.2834 (intraday low).

The underlying trend is negative (see the succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak). Therefore we expect limited upside potential given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high) and the overall overbought conditions.

Await fresh signal.

يتبع ..........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

GBP/USD



The short-term rising trendline has been broken.

GBP/USD has broken its rising trendline. The next supports can be found at 1.5989 (30/11/2012 low) and 1.5962 (28/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 1.6083 (05/12/2012 low).

GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.

يتبع ........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

USD/JPY



Moving within its horizontal range.

USD/JPY is moving sideways within its horizontal range between the support at 81.65 and 82.84 (22/11/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart). Monitor the hourly support at 82.20.

USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.

يتبع ........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

USD/CHF



Bounce is approaching the resistance at 0.9392.

USD/CHF has rebounded close to the low of its horizontal range (see below). Resistances can be found at 0.9392 and 0.9458 (21/11/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.9320 (07/12/2012 low).

The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Monitor the horizontal range between 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low) and 0.9502 (31/08/2012 low).

Buy limit 3 at 0.9246, Objs: 0.9307/0.9380/0.9480, Stop: 0.9185.

يتبع ........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

USD/CAD



Challenging the key support at 0.9875.

USD/CAD has confirmed the break of its support at 0.9906. It is now testing the key support at 0.9875 (07/11/2012 low). Hourly resistances are at 0.9911 (intraday high) and 0.9934 (07/12/2012 high, see also top of the declining channel). Another support is at 0.9764 (11/10/2012 low).

The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.

يتبع ......

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

AUD/USD



Grinding higher.

AUD/USD is grinding higher towards the resistance defined by the declining trendline. An hourly support is at 1.0441 (06/12/2012 low). Another support can be found at 1.0391 (intraday low).

The strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 1.0613 suggests a limited upside potential.

AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Sell limit 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675.

يتبع .........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

GBP/JPY



Moving sideways.

GBP/JPY continues to move within its shortterm horizontal range between 131.56 and 132.81. A key support is at 130.46 (28/11/2012 low). A strong resistance is at 133.49 (21/03/2012 high).

The overall overbought conditions and the strong resistance at 133.49 favour a phase of weakness in the next few days.

GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further long-term strength. The next key resistances are at 133.49 and 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).

Sell limit 3 at 132.80, Objs: 131.95/130.68/128.55, Stop: 133.65.


يتبع ........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

EUR/JPY



Declining after successful test of the resistance at 108.00.

EUR/JPY is declining after failing to break the resistance at 108.00. The hourly support at 106.16 (29/11/2012 low) is challenged. A key support is at 105.28 (28/11/2012 low).

EUR/JPY has moved above its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top), which favours further longterm strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).

Await fresh signal

يتبع .........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

EUR/GBP



Moving below the support at 0.8058.

EUR/GBP has moved below its support at 0.8058 (intraday high). Another support can be found at 0.8006 (21/11/2012 low, see also rising trendline). An hourly resistance is at 0.8082 (07/12/2012 high).

A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.

Await fresh signal.

يتبع .......

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

EUR/CHF



Moving sideways.

EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


يتبع ........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

GOLD



Bouncing.

Gold has managed to hold above its previous low at 1685 (05/12/2012 high), creating a shortterm ****. Monitor the test of the resistance at 1709. Other resistances can be found at 1723 and 1732.

The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.

Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.

يتبع ............

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

SILVER



The resistance at 33.24 has been breached.

Silver is breaking out of its short-term **** defined by the support at 32.53 (05/12/2012 low) and the resistance at 33.24 (05/12/21012 high). The next resistance can be found at 33.81 (03/12/2012 high).

The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.

Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Buy limit 3 at 33.16, Objs: 33.43/33.80/34.28, Stop: 32.89.

يتبع ........

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رد: الورشـــــــة الشاملة ( تحليلات فنية , أخبار , توقعات وتوصيات البنوك العالمية )

استراتيجية التداول على الزوج EUR/USD من بنوك Commerz وWestpac وBTMU

يظهر اليورو استقرار كبيراً حول المنطقة 1.2900 اليوم الاثنين بالرغم من البيانات المثبطة الصادرة عن مؤشر Sentix لثقة المستثمر الأوروبي والأنباء المقلقة القادمة من إيطاليا بشأن استقالة رئيس الوزراء الإيطالي ماريو مونتي.

وترى كارين جونز المحلل الفني بـ بنك Commerz، أن الزوج قد أنهى اتجاهه الصاعد المنعكس الذي استهله بالأسبوع الماضي قبيل المقاومة الأساسية عند المنطقة 1.3150/80، وتكالبت عليه عمليات بيع أرسلته إلى أدنى مستوياته في 28 نوفمبر عند 1.2880. وتعتقد المحللة أنه من المحتمل أن يصمد الدعم في الاختبار الأول ليرتد الزوج بالغاً القمة دون المنطقة 1.3021/35 (ذروة ارتفاعه في أكتوبر). وترى المحللة أن الزوج قد يختبر خط الدعم 1.2880/76 بعد ذلك. وأضافت أن اختراق الزوج للمستوى 1.2815 قد يعني تسارع وتيرة هبوطه نحو 1.2785 ثم 1.2661/24.

أما عن شون كالو الخبير الاستراتيجي ببنك Westpac الاسترالي أن "الزوج لم يستجمع الزخم الكافي لتخطي المنطقة 1.3050/1.3100 الأسبوع الماضي نظراً لنتائج اجتماع لجنة السياسة النقدية بالبنك المركزي الأوروبي. حيث أشار التقرير التالي إلى قرب اتخاذ قرار بخفض معدل الفائدة. وفي ظل الأوضاع المضطربة في إيطاليا على الصعيد السياسي تزداد مخاوف مستثمري اليورو ، لكن التسهيل النقدي الذي قام به البنك الفيدرالي الأمريكي قد يحد من خسائر العملة الموحدة المحتملة".

وفي الوقت نفسه، يؤكد جيفري يو المحلل الفني ببنك UBS أن التوقعات صاعدة للزوج التقاطعي ويضيف، " حيث نجد أن مؤشرات الاتجاه تومئ بالارتفاع وهناك توقعات باستئناف الزوج تعافيه ليواجه المقاومة التالية عند 1.2973 قبيل 1.3127. في حين الدعم قد يلاقيه الزوج عند 1.2840."