نظره تحليليه ل fxsol

[mohamed saleh]

GBP/USD Daily Chart –.)

The GBP/USD daily chart above shows a slightly different picture. The pair has essentially been trading in a wide range of approximately 700 pips since November of 2006. For a while, this pair has remained somewhat of a goldmine for diehard range traders, as there have been many potentially lucrative range trading opportunities on Cable since mid-2006.

Currently, we also sit at a confluence of support factors for the GBP/USD, albeit not as extensive as on the previously discussed EUR/USD

The strongest visual support level occurs at the middle yellow horizontal line, around the 1.9150 level, which previously acted as resistance and now serves as stable support. Coupled with this is the 50% Fibonacci level (when measured from the trough on 10/11/2006 to the peak that was hit on 12/01/2006 and re-tested on 1/23/2007), which corresponds very closely with this middle yellow support line. As with the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD also hit this support region on Monday 3/05/2007, and then turned back up on a dime the next day.

Along with these two significant support factors, we have very strong support just below on the long-term uptrend line, represented by the lowest green uptrend line. A breakdown below this level would require highly decisive price action, which may be exploited as a potential breakout trade. Further short-term support can be found at the 61.8% Fib level around 1.9020.

On the upside, short-term resistance resides at the red downtrend line, and then, beyond that, at the middle green trend line. Ultimate resistance lies at the previously double-tested highs around 1.9850.

Finally, Slow Stochastics is turning up from oversold, which hints at what may be a further up-move.

Once again, Friday’s NFP will lend more clarity to how the technicals will play out on Cable.

[mohamed saleh]

رد: نظره تحليليه ل fxsol

EUR/USD Daily Chart – Uptrends in green, downtrends in red, pattern formations in blue, horizontal levels in yellow, 100-period SMA in light blue.)

Since the last Non-Farm Payrolls report in February, we have witnessed a steady re-strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Within the last week or so, however, as equity markets in Asia and the U.S. have experienced huge volatility, we can see the effects reflected in rather drastic currency movements. Although the EUR/USD was not affected nearly as much as other currency pairs, it moved significantly nonetheless. As we will see later, the USD/JPY took the full brunt of this inter-market volatility.

From a technical perspective, we can see on the above EUR/USD daily chart that, much like during last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls, we are approaching a level of vitally significant support confluence. In other words, this currency pair is at a critical juncture where several different technical factors are simultaneously providing price support.

For one, we have a strong horizontal support/resistance line (denoted by the top yellow line) at around 1.3060 that first acted as support in December of 2006, then became resistance in January to early February, and currently serves as support again since mid-February. As can be seen on the chart, price hit this line a couple of days ago on Monday, 3/05/2007, and then bounced right back up again. This horizontal line serves as a robust example of support/resistance principles.

This line also corresponds very nicely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (when measured from the short-term trough on 1/12/2007 to the short-term peak on 2/27/2007), which adds even further to support strength.

Another strong support factor is the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) (denoted by the light blue moving average line), which has served as an extremely reliable and precise support level for the pair since November of 2006. Again, this line was almost touched on Monday, but bounced up on a dime the next day.

Besides these two exceptionally significant support factors, we also see a long-term uptrend line (denoted by the dotted green line) that will support the pair in the absence of any decisive breakdown of support.

And finally, we can also see an interesting technical phenomenon occurring with the top red downtrend line. Initially, since the most recent EUR/USD high on 12/04/2006, this line served as downtrend resistance. It was broken through with a close above the breakout on 2/15/2007. Once price broke through, it hit a swing high on 2/27/2007, and then returned to this previous resistance line again, where it has now found significant support. This type of return to the line after a breakout often signals an impending bounce, which, in this case, may push price back up to test previous highs.

On the downside, there will need to be significant dollar-strength to breakdown below all of this support, and Friday’s NFP report will help dictate whether or not this is likely to occur. But if there is a breakdown of this support confluence, exploiting the break on a decisive move may be the potential trade to make. If that is the case, we have further support at the oft-tested 1.2900 area. This level is approximately denoted by the lower yellow horizontal line.

With all of this support in place, let’s look at the upside for the pair. The first level of resistance will be at the last swing high at around the 1.3260 level. Beyond that, we have much stronger resistance at the 1.3300 level, which had a clear double-test around New Year’s. And of course, resistance beyond that will be the long-term high at the 1.3370 region.

There are no oscillator divergences in sight, but the Slow Stochastics are showing an approach of oversold territory, which gives a faint signal of exhaustion in the downturn.

Again, the fundamental reaction to the NFP report on Friday will give us a better read as to which direction the EUR/USD pair may follow in the coming weeks and months.

[عبد الرؤوف]

رد: نظره تحليليه ل fxsol

مشكور جداً على هذا التحليل القيم .

[new_trader]

رد: نظره تحليليه ل fxsol

مشكوور اخي............:045: