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|2011 - 02 - 01, 18:10||رقم المشاركة : 1|
Dow Jones Newsletter Tue 1st Feb 2011
tuesday, february 1, 2011
Euro bulls are poised to force a break into fresh two-month highs above 1.3760. Monday's strong recovery keeps the key 1.3540 support level intact, and a fresh bull wave is expected towards the wave equality target at 1.3841. Failure to force a break above 1.3760 would prompt lateral consolidation back towards Monday's low at 1.3570, but as part of a bullish continuation pattern.
Prospects for the short-term have improved significantly following Tuesday's probe into fresh two-month highs above 1.6058. The 1.6095 high is the next upside target, but technically, scope has now been created for gains to 1.6182 and 1.6211. Former resistance at 1.5990 now reverts to support, but downside risk is limited at this stage.
Bears have regained control of the short-term, as Tuesday's current session low at 81.75 remains vulnerable. With the January 27 lower high at 83.22 secure protecting the 83.70 reaction high, a downtrend extension is likely to meet the wave equality target at 81.37. A three-month bear pennant support line lies at 81.27 for Tuesday's session. Corrective strength is limited to the 82.26 area, and upside risk is limited.
Tuesday's strength is pushing above 1.0004 to challenge the three-week bear pennant resistance line at 1.0047. A break above 1.0047 is expected at this stage, opening the January 19 high at 1.0079 and boosting prospects for a stronger recovery towards 1.0150. Failure to force a break above 1.0047 would concern near-term bulls, and prompt a setback to the 0.9950 area.
The euro is proving remarkably immune to the political turmoil in Egypt. To be sure the single currency was knocked a bit lower by the rush into safe havens last week as demonstrators took to the streets in the hopes of bringing down the government of President Hosni Mubarak. But as the protests enter their seventh day and Moody's downgrades Egypt debt, the euro remains resilient. Despite rising crude oil prices, the currency shows little sign of even testing the lower end of its recent trading range at about $1.34. Some of this euro resilience could just be market optimism that the turmoil in the Middle East won't spread to the region's major oil producers. If anything, a regime change that brings democracy to Egypt could prove positive for global market sentiment in the long run. However, the euro's performance may have more to do with a decline in its own sensitivity to risk as yield differentials have continued to move in the single currency's favor. This could accelerate given rising hopes that European Union leaders are now preparing a longer-term solution to the sovereign debt crisis that has undermined investor confidence in the euro for so long. According to Forex.com, the correlation between the euro/dollar pair and the VIX index, which measures equity market volatility, has fallen in recent months after reaching a high in June. This coincides with a shift in the yield differential between the euro zone and the U.S. in favor of the euro, with the swap rate spread reaching a two-year high last week. The trend could be reinforced if tensions in the Middle East drive U.S. Treasury yields lower, as investors seek safety in U.S. government bonds, and if the European Central Bank maintains its hawkish stance. Investors are already braced for ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to turn up the hawkish volume after data Monday showed that euro-zone inflation rose to 2.4% in January, higher than the 2.3% that had been expected.
No matter which way you turn the USD is definitely out of favor Tuesday in European trading. EUR/USD at 1.3776 and GBP/USD at 1.6140 are highs last seen in mid November, USD/JPY at 81.53 is at a near one-month low and away from the majors USD/SEK is trading down at 6.3870, a level last seen in August of 2008. Not surprisingly the USD index is at a near 3-month low of 77.294. Several signs suggest that the USD is in for a new bout of further weakness, says Citi. The USD index closed below its key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (77.852) last night and is moving further away from here in Europe Tuesday. The rise in GBP/USD would support this view, as does EUR/USD moving above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3740.
The dollar fell against the yen Tuesday in Asia due to speculation that rising prices of commodities such as crude oil may hamper U.S. economic growth ahead. Investors are becoming less bullish on the U.S. economic outlook because recent rises in commodity prices--partly fueled by the ongoing political tension in Egypt--may weaken the momentum of world's largest economy, said Osamu Takashima, chief foreign exchange strategist at Citibank Japan. "The market's expectations for the U.S. economic outlook are falling as we can see in U.S. inflation-linked bond yields," Takashima said. As of 0450 GMT, the dollar was at Y81.93 from Y82.04 Monday in New York. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 77.582 from 77.747. Okasan Securities senior dealer Tsutomu Soma said the greenback may fall to Y81.25 later in the global day. Other Tokyo dealers said it won't get to the that level so easily, as there are many dollar-buying orders of $100 million-$200 million each lined in the Y81.90-Y81.95 range. Later in European trading hours, investors will pay attention to a speech at 1615 GMT by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet in Milan, dealers said. The euro may extend its gains if the central bank chief takes a hawkish tone, they added. The euro was at $1.3724 from $1.3694 in New York and Y112.44 from Y112.35. Still, Soma warned of a sudden fall in the common currency because it is "very unrealistic" to factor in the ECB's rate hike while the region is still struggling with debt problems, and political confusion in Egypt could worsen anytime. "I won't chase the euro higher," Soma said.
The euro rose against the dollar Monday in New York as speculation mounted that the currency bloc's central bank would raise key interest rates to curb rising inflation, momentarily outweighing concerns about the turmoil in Egypt. Mass demonstrations in Cairo designed to unseat longtime president Hosni Mubarak had unnerved investors Friday, punishing the euro and other riskier assets, sending flows into traditional safe-harbor currencies like the dollar, yen and Swiss franc. But those fears temporarily eased Monday, reversing some market moves. An unexpectedly strong reading of euro-zone consumer-price data added weight to the idea of higher interest rates, which would boost the attractiveness of holding the euro over lower-yielding currencies, such as the dollar and yen. Recent anti-inflation comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have given the euro a lift. "The ECB has started sounding more hawkish on inflation: That's been pushing the euro higher," said Aroop Chatterjee, chief foreign exchange quantitative strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. But the euro's gains could be capped in its current range, Chatterjee said, as the ECB is likely to withdraw liquidity from markets and end other measures enacted in the wake of the financial crisis before it increases key rates. "What's important is what's going to happen on the European sovereign-debt side," he said. "If conditions are stable...then, yes, you'd probably expect the ECB to withdraw some of its nonstandard monetary policy operations," which would take it down the road to eventually raising key rates. Relative calm in the simmering crisis in Egypt also helped the euro hurdle the psychologically key $1.37 mark; other higher-yielding currencies considered riskier, such as the Australian dollar and Brazilian real, also notched gains against the greenback.
المصدر: منتدى المضارب العربي لتجارة العملات الفوركس - من قسم: الفوركس وتجارة العملات في البورصة العالمية
|2011 - 02 - 03, 02:23||رقم المشاركة : 2|
رد: Dow Jones Newsletter Tue 1st Feb 2011
ارجو منك وضع التحليل بالغة العربية
ليتفاعل معاك معظم الاعضاء
|2011 - 02 - 03, 12:23||رقم المشاركة : 3|
رد: Dow Jones Newsletter Tue 1st Feb 2011
اضم صوتي الى صوت اخويا محمد ياريت يكون الشرح بالعربي
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|2011, Jones, Newsletter|
|الموضوع||كاتب الموضوع||المنتدى||مشاركات||آخر مشاركة|
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