pivot levels ( long term ) with support points and residence mounthly updated

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  • pivot levels ( long term ) with support points and residence mounthly updated

    Euro / British Pound




    It seems unlikely that price will move through 8395 as the rally from 8140 is left as a 3 wave advance (corrective) and the decline from 8395 is an impulse (with the larger trend). I wrote on Wednesday that “near term expectations are for a move back to 8275 before weakness resumes.” A rally has unfolded and reached 8280. Additional resistance is 8330


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    EURCAD



    The EURCAD continues to play out beautifully. “5 waves up in the EURCAD from the June low indicate that the trend is up from that level. Waves a and b of an a-b-c correction are probably complete. Allow for a drop below 13150 in wave c.” The correction may be complete as the EURCAD has bounced from the 50% retracement. Also, wave A and C close to equal (C is a barely shorter). 12925/50 is additional resistance but the upside is promising from here

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    EURAUD


    The EURAUD appears to have traced out a triangle from the May low. Triangles are typically followed by terminal thrusts in the direction of the larger trend (the ‘terminal’ thrust completes the larger trend). Given the extent of the triangle (at least 3 months), the thrust lower will probably be significant. The classic triangle measuring technique (extend the widest part of the triangle from the breakout price) does not project a low until 12500.” The EURCAD recently traded at its lowest level since November 1989. Needless to say, this is probably not the time to pick a bottom. I’ll continue to look lower, allowing for a near term correction. 13890 and 13950 are resistance

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    EURJPY


    The EURJPY may have found an important low at 10540. The 5 wave pattern is visible from the October 2009 high. Expectations are for a correction higher (which could be sharp) to at least 11500 and perhaps close to 12000 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Near term, price has broken higher from a small triangle (terminal pattern) so there is the possibility of a move back to 10740 before strength resumes. Below 10540 would clearly negate this outlook and shift focus to 100 (which is also the June 2001 low) as well as the bottom of the channel

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    GBPJPY




    The GBPJPY decline from its 2009 high is contained within a well defined channel. The GBPJPY has failed to take out its May low, which creates a divergence with the EURJPY that often attends important turns (this is true with the CADJPY and AUDJPY as well). The drop from 16315 is clearly not an impulse but neither is the rally from 11880. A triangle may be underway here from the January 2009 low. If so, the GBPJPY would turn up soon (it may already have put in a low at 12670

    The GBPJPY decline from its 2009 high is contained within a well defined channel. The GBPJPY has failed to take out its May low, which creates a divergence with the EURJPY that often attends important turns (this is true with the CADJPY and AUDJPY as well). The drop from 16315 is clearly not an impulse but neither is the rally from 11880. A triangle may be underway here from the January 2009 low. If so, the GBPJPY would turn up soon (it may already have put in a low at 12670

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    CADJPY


    The CADJPY has reversed from the 100% extension of the 9450-8240 decline. A move through 8200 would shift focus to 8500. Price is currently testing a multi month resistance line, which may impede gains over the next few days. 8040 is support
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    AUDJPY


    Since the May low, the AUDJPY has traded sideways in what is probably the first 2 segments of a 3 wave correction (wave a as a flat and wave b as a triangle). The triangle is either complete or close to complete and price should stay above 7590. 7725 and 7680 are supports


    التعديل الأخير تم بواسطة مالي سواك; 2010 - 09 - 19, 15:58.

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    رد: pivot levels ( long term ) with support points and residence mounthly updated

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