تويت
رد: العملاق وارين بافيت ( أسطورة الاوراق المالية)
المقابلة الاخيرة للعملاق وارين بافيت
مع قناة cnbc بتاريخ 12/7/2012
This is a transcript of Warren Buffett's Sun Valley live interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, July 12, 2012, from 7:30am to 8:00am ET.In his conversation with Becky Quick, Buffett says he now sees U.S. economic growth slowing, but residential housing is picking up slightly.
He also says Europe has "been slipping pretty fast" over the past six weeks.
BECKY QUICK: Mr. Buffett, thank you for joining us this morning.
WARREN BUFFETT: It's good to be here.
BECKY: It's great to see you. And we couldn't think of a better time to have you on because there are so many questions about what's been going on with the economy, what's been going on with the jobs picture. Why don't you tell us what you're seeing right now in your businesses?
BUFFETT: Well, I've got a little different story this time. (Laughs.) For a couple years I've been telling you everything except residential housing was improving at a moderate rate — not crawling, but not galloping either — but that residential housing was flatlining. And the last two months it's been just sort of the opposite. The general economy in the United States has been more or less flat, and so the growth has tempered down. But the residential housing, we're seeing a pickup. It's noticeable. It's from a very low ****. It doesn't amount to a whole lot yet, but it's getting better. So you've got a kind of flip-flop on that.
BECKY: What happened? When we talked in the past you had said that when housing turned that would be when the U.S. economy would turn. What happened?
BUFFETT: Well, it hasn't changed all that much yet. But it is picking up. But at the same time the rest of the economy is slowing down. It's not heading downward but it's not growing at the rate that it was earlier. And then, it's kind of interesting in Europe. For a year or so, in most places, forget about Greece for the moment, but generally in Europe you didn't have a big slowdown. You had a lot of worry and all that. But in the last couple months in Europe, particularly in the past month, it's pretty much across Europe, things have really started to slip pretty fast.
BECKY: We've heard this from a lot of CEOs who joined us in the last several weeks. But what business lines in particular do you look at and you see these things popping up?
BUFFETT: All of the businesses that we have, and then I talk to people in other businesses. It's pretty clear that's what's going on right now. There are certain figures I can't tell you where I get them. Europe is really — it's headed downward in the last, I don't know, six weeks or so. And it wasn't going that way before. It wasn't doing that well, but it wasn't — and then it hit the skids.
BECKY: Is that because of consumers or because of businesses, confidence really slowing down and spending slowing down?
BUFFETT: Yeah, well, spending is slowing down and when spending slows down business reacts. They're not seeing the same kind of spending so they pull in their horns some.
BECKY: What, of the things you can talk about, the numbers that you do see, concern you the most?
BUFFETT: Well, it's pretty general, Becky. Like I say, it has not turned down yet in the United States. Our freight car loadings are up week-by-week. I normally get them today but I'm not home, so — but last week they're up — the eastern railroads were down moderately, but a lot of that's coal. But nevertheless, just across the board, when you're looking at our retail sales, jewelry or furniture or you name it — yards of carpet are down, our carpet business is better. But on the other hand, if you look at — we're the largest home builder in the country, Clayton Homes, and that's up, brick is picking up, but these are from low levels. But you are seeing — in our real estate brokerage firm, which is the second largest in the country, pending sales are up by a reasonable amount but from a very low ****.
BECKY: Well with everything else — not a reversal, a slowdown in the growth, what happened? What happened six weeks ago to spook people, to spook businesses?
BUFFETT: I don't know the answer to that. I know the result. You could argue in Europe, why it was delayed so long? Because Europe has really been — you could see this coming for two — it was two years ago we saw a lot of our Spanish and Italian and even French bonds. We were overly cautious probably. But that was two years ago. Europe, with all that's going on, it probably kept it from having any kind of gains but it didn't really seem to sink in. But I would say the last, well I know the last couple months, with some acceleration, it's been hitting over there.
BECKY: We've watched the jobs picture and the last employment numbers at 8.2 percent from that government report last Friday. Is that a chicken and egg cycle? Are people watching the jobs number and getting spooked by it, or is the jobs number kind of —
BUFFETT: Well, you're right. There is some circularity in it. I don't know the answer to exactly why it's happening. And I don't know what it will be three months from now or six months from now because three months ago I didn't know what it would be today. The U.S. economy is doing better than virtually any big economy around the world. This economy has come back a long way, with the exception of housing, from where it was a few years ago. And you can see it in corporate profits. I thought it would take housing — I still think it would take housing coming back to move us generally, significantly, upward and I still think that's true. But so far the little pickup in housing has not been near enough to offset whatever is going on in the world generally.
BECKY: The Fed came out with their minutes yesterday. Obviously they're concerned about the economy. They say that they could step in to do something else. But I guess the question becomes what would it take for them to step in and what do they do at that point?
BUFFETT: Yeah, I— I have my own doubts. I'm sure Chairman Bernanke would disagree with me. And he knows a lot more about it than I do. But I— I do— I— you know, when you get— when you have interest rates down to— to zero, not only here but— in the main— in the major com— countries in Europe and— and you have the— you have a 15-year treasury inflation— protected, so called TIPS, security selling at a negative yield.
Fifteen years, people are willing to put their money out at a minus rate— in real terms. That— that— that— that— that's about as far as you can go. I— I— I— now I— I'm— you know, you can talk about more easing or that sort of thing. But— you know, the banks are sitting with enormous amounts of money at the Fed. They don't want to be sitting with that money at the Fed. I mean, it— it's— it's bringing 'em a quarter of a percent or something. You lose money on that money at the Fed, just from the bank standpoint. So they're not happy having that money at the Fed. They just aren't seeing that much demand for— for loans.
BECKY: So—
BUFFETT: Although they're picking up a little. I mean— but it's— nothing like— people would like to see. I— I don't see— I don't see what the Fed does that's— that— is dramatic.
BECKY: Is— does that mean we're in a "wait and see" pattern? And—
BUFFETT: To some extent. And then it— it— it also means that— that— that— (LAUGH) that they shouldn't be bicycling like crazy at the Fed while— while— well— they— they may— maybe they should be bicycling like crazy, but it— but while Congress sits there on the sidelines and— and, you know— and— basically squabbles.
BECKY: What should Congress be doing, at this point? I mean, we're gonna talk more with Simpson and Bowles a little later this morning. But you think that there's something that Congress should be doing right now?
BUFFETT: Well, I think— I think people have a feeling that— that— that Congress is— is inept. And— and— and— and sort of paralyzed by— by the desire of each side to make the other side look bad. So I— I— I think that has gotta be a factor in— in— in general confidence. You know, if you see your government not functioning, (LAUGH) it's not— it's not really the most— it's not the biggest spur to activity that you can imagine.
BECKY: Yeah, maybe not a confidence booster, so to speak.
BUFFETT: Yeah, so— so I— I think— I think it's hard for the Fed to offset the Congress, in terms of changing public opinion.
BECKY: Okay— we're gonna have more with Warren Buffett in just a moment
المقابلة الاخيرة للعملاق وارين بافيت
مع قناة cnbc بتاريخ 12/7/2012
This is a transcript of Warren Buffett's Sun Valley live interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, July 12, 2012, from 7:30am to 8:00am ET.In his conversation with Becky Quick, Buffett says he now sees U.S. economic growth slowing, but residential housing is picking up slightly.
He also says Europe has "been slipping pretty fast" over the past six weeks.
BECKY QUICK: Mr. Buffett, thank you for joining us this morning.
WARREN BUFFETT: It's good to be here.
BECKY: It's great to see you. And we couldn't think of a better time to have you on because there are so many questions about what's been going on with the economy, what's been going on with the jobs picture. Why don't you tell us what you're seeing right now in your businesses?
BUFFETT: Well, I've got a little different story this time. (Laughs.) For a couple years I've been telling you everything except residential housing was improving at a moderate rate — not crawling, but not galloping either — but that residential housing was flatlining. And the last two months it's been just sort of the opposite. The general economy in the United States has been more or less flat, and so the growth has tempered down. But the residential housing, we're seeing a pickup. It's noticeable. It's from a very low ****. It doesn't amount to a whole lot yet, but it's getting better. So you've got a kind of flip-flop on that.
BECKY: What happened? When we talked in the past you had said that when housing turned that would be when the U.S. economy would turn. What happened?
BUFFETT: Well, it hasn't changed all that much yet. But it is picking up. But at the same time the rest of the economy is slowing down. It's not heading downward but it's not growing at the rate that it was earlier. And then, it's kind of interesting in Europe. For a year or so, in most places, forget about Greece for the moment, but generally in Europe you didn't have a big slowdown. You had a lot of worry and all that. But in the last couple months in Europe, particularly in the past month, it's pretty much across Europe, things have really started to slip pretty fast.
BECKY: We've heard this from a lot of CEOs who joined us in the last several weeks. But what business lines in particular do you look at and you see these things popping up?
BUFFETT: All of the businesses that we have, and then I talk to people in other businesses. It's pretty clear that's what's going on right now. There are certain figures I can't tell you where I get them. Europe is really — it's headed downward in the last, I don't know, six weeks or so. And it wasn't going that way before. It wasn't doing that well, but it wasn't — and then it hit the skids.
BECKY: Is that because of consumers or because of businesses, confidence really slowing down and spending slowing down?
BUFFETT: Yeah, well, spending is slowing down and when spending slows down business reacts. They're not seeing the same kind of spending so they pull in their horns some.
BECKY: What, of the things you can talk about, the numbers that you do see, concern you the most?
BUFFETT: Well, it's pretty general, Becky. Like I say, it has not turned down yet in the United States. Our freight car loadings are up week-by-week. I normally get them today but I'm not home, so — but last week they're up — the eastern railroads were down moderately, but a lot of that's coal. But nevertheless, just across the board, when you're looking at our retail sales, jewelry or furniture or you name it — yards of carpet are down, our carpet business is better. But on the other hand, if you look at — we're the largest home builder in the country, Clayton Homes, and that's up, brick is picking up, but these are from low levels. But you are seeing — in our real estate brokerage firm, which is the second largest in the country, pending sales are up by a reasonable amount but from a very low ****.
BECKY: Well with everything else — not a reversal, a slowdown in the growth, what happened? What happened six weeks ago to spook people, to spook businesses?
BUFFETT: I don't know the answer to that. I know the result. You could argue in Europe, why it was delayed so long? Because Europe has really been — you could see this coming for two — it was two years ago we saw a lot of our Spanish and Italian and even French bonds. We were overly cautious probably. But that was two years ago. Europe, with all that's going on, it probably kept it from having any kind of gains but it didn't really seem to sink in. But I would say the last, well I know the last couple months, with some acceleration, it's been hitting over there.
BECKY: We've watched the jobs picture and the last employment numbers at 8.2 percent from that government report last Friday. Is that a chicken and egg cycle? Are people watching the jobs number and getting spooked by it, or is the jobs number kind of —
BUFFETT: Well, you're right. There is some circularity in it. I don't know the answer to exactly why it's happening. And I don't know what it will be three months from now or six months from now because three months ago I didn't know what it would be today. The U.S. economy is doing better than virtually any big economy around the world. This economy has come back a long way, with the exception of housing, from where it was a few years ago. And you can see it in corporate profits. I thought it would take housing — I still think it would take housing coming back to move us generally, significantly, upward and I still think that's true. But so far the little pickup in housing has not been near enough to offset whatever is going on in the world generally.
BECKY: The Fed came out with their minutes yesterday. Obviously they're concerned about the economy. They say that they could step in to do something else. But I guess the question becomes what would it take for them to step in and what do they do at that point?
BUFFETT: Yeah, I— I have my own doubts. I'm sure Chairman Bernanke would disagree with me. And he knows a lot more about it than I do. But I— I do— I— you know, when you get— when you have interest rates down to— to zero, not only here but— in the main— in the major com— countries in Europe and— and you have the— you have a 15-year treasury inflation— protected, so called TIPS, security selling at a negative yield.
Fifteen years, people are willing to put their money out at a minus rate— in real terms. That— that— that— that— that's about as far as you can go. I— I— I— now I— I'm— you know, you can talk about more easing or that sort of thing. But— you know, the banks are sitting with enormous amounts of money at the Fed. They don't want to be sitting with that money at the Fed. I mean, it— it's— it's bringing 'em a quarter of a percent or something. You lose money on that money at the Fed, just from the bank standpoint. So they're not happy having that money at the Fed. They just aren't seeing that much demand for— for loans.
BECKY: So—
BUFFETT: Although they're picking up a little. I mean— but it's— nothing like— people would like to see. I— I don't see— I don't see what the Fed does that's— that— is dramatic.
BECKY: Is— does that mean we're in a "wait and see" pattern? And—
BUFFETT: To some extent. And then it— it— it also means that— that— that— (LAUGH) that they shouldn't be bicycling like crazy at the Fed while— while— well— they— they may— maybe they should be bicycling like crazy, but it— but while Congress sits there on the sidelines and— and, you know— and— basically squabbles.
BECKY: What should Congress be doing, at this point? I mean, we're gonna talk more with Simpson and Bowles a little later this morning. But you think that there's something that Congress should be doing right now?
BUFFETT: Well, I think— I think people have a feeling that— that— that Congress is— is inept. And— and— and— and sort of paralyzed by— by the desire of each side to make the other side look bad. So I— I— I think that has gotta be a factor in— in— in general confidence. You know, if you see your government not functioning, (LAUGH) it's not— it's not really the most— it's not the biggest spur to activity that you can imagine.
BECKY: Yeah, maybe not a confidence booster, so to speak.
BUFFETT: Yeah, so— so I— I think— I think it's hard for the Fed to offset the Congress, in terms of changing public opinion.
BECKY: Okay— we're gonna have more with Warren Buffett in just a moment
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