السلام عليكم
احد الاشخاص اتابع تحليله او رؤيته لزوج اليورو دولار بشكل يومى
والحقيقه رؤيته بتكون تقريبا صحيحه جدا
غير انه بيفهمك ليه حركة السوق تمت بالشكل دا
انا الحقيقه معرفش مخالف لقوانين المنتدى انى اضع لينك المدونه الخاصه بالمحلل ولا لا
مبدأيا
هقوم بوضع التحليل من المدونه يوميا هنا
وياريت المشرف يعرفنى عادى انى اضع رابط المدونه ولا لا
دا تحليل النهارده
احد الاشخاص اتابع تحليله او رؤيته لزوج اليورو دولار بشكل يومى
والحقيقه رؤيته بتكون تقريبا صحيحه جدا
غير انه بيفهمك ليه حركة السوق تمت بالشكل دا
انا الحقيقه معرفش مخالف لقوانين المنتدى انى اضع لينك المدونه الخاصه بالمحلل ولا لا
مبدأيا
هقوم بوضع التحليل من المدونه يوميا هنا
وياريت المشرف يعرفنى عادى انى اضع رابط المدونه ولا لا
دا تحليل النهارده
Good morning fellow traders.
Not only is today Friday, but it is also the last trading session of the month of September and also the last trading session of the third quarter. As such, on top of any possible impact from today’s economic data releases and the results of the anticipated Spanish bank stress tests, we get the added volatility usually associated with month and quarter end flows
.
So, what are month and quarter end flows and how do they impact the currency markets? That is a very straightforward question, but unfortunately the answer is not equally straightforward. I will however attempt to answer this from one of the many perspectives and underlying drivers of this phenomenon. The perspective I am about to try and explain will probably be today’s biggest driver
.
It’s all about hedging risk. Assuming I am a huge fund manager (I wish) ****d in Frankfurt (Or Madrid if you wish), my home currency is Euros. Now assume that on top of my holdings in the European markets, I also have US investments in both cash and equities. These US holdings are hedged against currency exchange fluctuation risk via my holdings in European and other international markets. The reason I have to hedge these holdings is that if my US equities increased in value by 10% and at the same time the US Dollar loses 2% against the Euro, my effective gains in my home currency (Euros) on my US holdings is reduced by 2% for a total gain of 8% (instead of 10%). Worse yet, if the Euro gains 10% on the USD, all my gains in my US equity holdings are wiped out. So, the way I would hedge against that risk is to balance the hedge and the way to do that is to sell some of my US cash holdings. I’m not going to get into the methods (outright cash transactions, Puts on futures or options contracts etc) or calculations (mind boggling stuff) on how this is done, but this should give you an idea of why this happens.
In this quarter (1st July to 30th September), not only have the US equity markets made significant gains, but the US Dollar (thanks in major part to Ben Bernanke and his merry men) has significantly depreciated. Therefore under those conditions, it stands to reason that there will be much USD selling across the board today as fund managers and major banks re-hedge their currency risks. Mind you it does not automatically mean that the E/U pair will definitely rally today because other economic or political events may cause some risk aversion and/or after all the gains we have seen in equity, some managers and banks may decide to take some profit off the table as opposed to hedging their current holdings. If that happens, expect to see very choppy markets today. However, if we get the re-hedge and a risk-on environment, the most likely outcome will be a Euro rally (or rather a USD bashing
)
From a technical perspective,
there are two events I am watching that may support a rally in this pair today and into Monday. The first one is the fact that the down trend line was breached yesterday on optimism surrounding the Spanish economic reforms announced yesterday in their 2013 budget. The second is the fact that the daily charts are showing a MacD bullish hidden divergence which needs to be relieved before the next leg down.
Taking all the above into consideration, it is quite likely that today we will see the Euro retrace upwards into the mid 1.30xx to low 1.31xx area before a continuation downward into next week. This should give the bears an opportunity to add fresh short positions at a better price which will carve out a new lower top into Monday for a resumption of the eventual move down towards the 2012 lows before the end of the year
.
Keep in mind that the results of the Spanish bank stress test are going to be key here. If there is an indication that the banks are in worse shape than anticipated, all bets are off as risk-aversion will most likely set in hard. That being said, my suspision is that the results will be fudged so as to not cause market panic.
As always, be well and trade safe
.
Pete Jackson’s Order Board:
EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2960 layered up to 1.3000, but buy stops mixed in through 1.2975. Bids 1.2880/1.2900, sell stops through 1.2875 ahead of bids again 1.2850/60, sell stops below. Tech support below (200 day MA 1.2825), through 1.2820 ahead of more bids 1.2800/10 Sell stops through 1.2800 ahead of more bids 1.2785/95
Today’s FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT
:
EUR/USD: 1.2800, 1.2875, 1.2890, 1.2910, 1.3000
Not only is today Friday, but it is also the last trading session of the month of September and also the last trading session of the third quarter. As such, on top of any possible impact from today’s economic data releases and the results of the anticipated Spanish bank stress tests, we get the added volatility usually associated with month and quarter end flows
.
So, what are month and quarter end flows and how do they impact the currency markets? That is a very straightforward question, but unfortunately the answer is not equally straightforward. I will however attempt to answer this from one of the many perspectives and underlying drivers of this phenomenon. The perspective I am about to try and explain will probably be today’s biggest driver
.
It’s all about hedging risk. Assuming I am a huge fund manager (I wish) ****d in Frankfurt (Or Madrid if you wish), my home currency is Euros. Now assume that on top of my holdings in the European markets, I also have US investments in both cash and equities. These US holdings are hedged against currency exchange fluctuation risk via my holdings in European and other international markets. The reason I have to hedge these holdings is that if my US equities increased in value by 10% and at the same time the US Dollar loses 2% against the Euro, my effective gains in my home currency (Euros) on my US holdings is reduced by 2% for a total gain of 8% (instead of 10%). Worse yet, if the Euro gains 10% on the USD, all my gains in my US equity holdings are wiped out. So, the way I would hedge against that risk is to balance the hedge and the way to do that is to sell some of my US cash holdings. I’m not going to get into the methods (outright cash transactions, Puts on futures or options contracts etc) or calculations (mind boggling stuff) on how this is done, but this should give you an idea of why this happens.
In this quarter (1st July to 30th September), not only have the US equity markets made significant gains, but the US Dollar (thanks in major part to Ben Bernanke and his merry men) has significantly depreciated. Therefore under those conditions, it stands to reason that there will be much USD selling across the board today as fund managers and major banks re-hedge their currency risks. Mind you it does not automatically mean that the E/U pair will definitely rally today because other economic or political events may cause some risk aversion and/or after all the gains we have seen in equity, some managers and banks may decide to take some profit off the table as opposed to hedging their current holdings. If that happens, expect to see very choppy markets today. However, if we get the re-hedge and a risk-on environment, the most likely outcome will be a Euro rally (or rather a USD bashing
)
From a technical perspective,
there are two events I am watching that may support a rally in this pair today and into Monday. The first one is the fact that the down trend line was breached yesterday on optimism surrounding the Spanish economic reforms announced yesterday in their 2013 budget. The second is the fact that the daily charts are showing a MacD bullish hidden divergence which needs to be relieved before the next leg down.
Taking all the above into consideration, it is quite likely that today we will see the Euro retrace upwards into the mid 1.30xx to low 1.31xx area before a continuation downward into next week. This should give the bears an opportunity to add fresh short positions at a better price which will carve out a new lower top into Monday for a resumption of the eventual move down towards the 2012 lows before the end of the year
.
Keep in mind that the results of the Spanish bank stress test are going to be key here. If there is an indication that the banks are in worse shape than anticipated, all bets are off as risk-aversion will most likely set in hard. That being said, my suspision is that the results will be fudged so as to not cause market panic.
As always, be well and trade safe
.
Pete Jackson’s Order Board:
EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2960 layered up to 1.3000, but buy stops mixed in through 1.2975. Bids 1.2880/1.2900, sell stops through 1.2875 ahead of bids again 1.2850/60, sell stops below. Tech support below (200 day MA 1.2825), through 1.2820 ahead of more bids 1.2800/10 Sell stops through 1.2800 ahead of more bids 1.2785/95
Today’s FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT
:
EUR/USD: 1.2800, 1.2875, 1.2890, 1.2910, 1.3000
تعليق